| Venezuela's moment of truth |
| Written by Maria Elena Salinas |
| Tuesday, June 29 2004 |
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| He might not be aware of it, but President George W. Bush is going to the polls on Aug. 15. However, his rival will not be John Kerry or Ralph Nader; it will be President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. At least, that is the Venezuelan leader's version of the referendum that will decide whether he stays in power or is forced to step down.
According to Chavez, in the recall election scheduled for Aug. 15, the Venezuelan people will choose between Bush -- whom he accuses of wanting to take over his country, turn the dollar into the official currency and force Venezuelans to speak English -- and himself, a person who "is prepared to do whatever necessary" to defend his country.
That's just the latest in a series of confrontations with the U.S. president, whom he has accused of trying to overthrow him and attempting to invade his oil-rich country. He has blamed Bush for the deaths in Iraq and for meddling in Haiti. He has called him an illegitimate president, a liar and a couple of other epithets too crude to mention.
Actually, Chavez is sounding more and more like his role model and alter ego Fidel Castro. Just as the Cuban leader often does, Chavez is blaming the U.S. government for his political woes. He accuses the Bush administration of being behind the short-lived coup against him in 2002 and says he has proof that the United States is funding the opposition through the National Endowment for Democracy.
His anger and frustration stem from his struggle to stay in power. But after two years of doing everything from national strikes to massive protests to get rid of the man they consider to have left-leaning dictatorial tendencies, La Oposicion -- as his political rivals are called -- has finally forced Chavez into a recall election.
The process wasn't easy. They needed 2,436,083 signatures, or 20 percent of registered voters. The first try failed because, even though they had the necessary signatures, the process was declared unconstitutional on the grounds that it was not at the halfway point of Chavez's tenure. In the second signature drive, thousands of names were invalidated by the electoral authorities and had to be ratified in a third re-collection of signatures, which provided 2.5 million signatures, a little more than the number necessary to put Chavez through the recall.
For now, the date is set, but many questions remain: Will the opposition get more than a million and a half additional votes, which it needs to kick Chavez out of office? Will the president come up with another tactic to delay the vote or prevent it from happening? If the referendum does take place, will it be a clean and open election?
Here are some of the scenarios that could play out: The constitution states that if the referendum were not held before the 19th of August, the vice president would govern for the rest of the term. Since the deadline is only four days after the referendum, a questionable result could push it over the limit. The vice president could very well end up being a puppet of Chavez.
If Chavez loses the referendum, new elections will be held 30 days later. The Supreme Court -- which is made up mostly of pro-Chavez judges -- ruled recently that if the president were ousted through this process, he could again be a candidate.
Even though polls show that Chavez would lose a recall election, the question remains whether the opposition could come up with a candidate in less than 30 days and turn him or her into a national political figure strong enough to beat Chavez. The president still has a strong base of supporters. So, he could be ousted and one month later be re-elected.
Chavez's attempts to boost Venezuela's poor from their misery have come at a high price. He has alienated the working class, the business class, the church, the United States and many of his neighbors. His authoritarian approach and confrontational style have made him a threat to democracy in his country and the region. But he is also an extremely savvy politician who has won three national elections in the past. You can bet he will pull no punches in winning this latest contest against his imaginary opponent in Washington. |
