| venezuela more polarized than ever |
| Written by Maria Elena Salinas |
| Monday, August 23 2004 |
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| Caracas, Venezuela -- When I arrived in Venezuela before the referendum on the future of President Hugo Chavez, there was hope that the vote would end up being a peaceful, democratic solution to the political crisis that has torn this country apart. But after the recall election, Venezuela is now more polarized than ever and is immersed in a bitter feud with an uncertain outcome.
The Venezuelan opposition did not succeed in putting an end to Chavez's presidency. On the contrary; the recall election only helped to solidify his power. According to results presented by the Electoral National Committee, 58 percent of Venezuelans voted "no" to recalling Chavez, while 42 percent voted "yes."
The Democratic Coordinator, which encompasses old-guard political parties and new opposition movements, denounced it as a major electronic fraud. The opposition coalition doesn't dispute the numbers given by election authorities. What it disputes is that those numbers favored Chavez. Opposition leaders say exit polls conducted by reputable organizations gave them a clear lead over Chavez supporters.
International observers, headed by former President Jimmy Carter and Secretary General Cesar Gaviria of the Organization of American States, were quick to come out in support of the results presented by electoral authorities. But after the opposition cried foul, they agreed to monitor a partial recount. Not good enough. Opposition leaders said the recount would not detect a possible manipulation of the software that put a cap on "yes" votes and then turned them into "no" votes.
Whatever the outcome of the dispute in Venezuela, it's important to point out the conditions that led to the referendum. Antonio Ledezma, one of the opposition leaders and former mayor of the capital city of Caracas, told me he never trusted the electronic voting machines. "They were set up to conduct an electronic coup d'etat" he told me.
The question is: If they suspected there would be fraud, why did they go along with the recall election? The referendum was the result of a long and torturous process. Representatives of the government and the opposition negotiated for months under the auspices of the Carter Center and the OAS. And at the end, they all agreed on the rules of the game and tested the disputed voting machines.
In one of the polling places I visited while covering the election in the poor neighborhood of Petare, I saw two young men playing chess. I asked one of them how their game compared with the political maneuvering going on in their country. "There is no comparison," he told me. "In this game, both players have the same number of pieces." A wise answer.
In this political chess game, Chavez has more pieces than his opponents. He controls many of the country's key institutions. He bought votes by spending millions of bolivares on social programs for the poor. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel confirmed to me in an interview that the government registered millions of new voters in the weeks leading up to the election, some being naturalized foreigners living in the country. "They deserve a chance to vote," he said.
But it is also a fact that the opposition did not present the Venezuelan people with a clear plan of what it would do to protect the poor if Chavez was ousted. Opposition leaders did not show a united front with a political figure strong enough to replace Chavez and able to unite the country.
It's not outlandish to think that Chavez could win an election in Venezuela without committing fraud. While his opponents accuse him of being authoritarian, his supporters say that's how he gets things done. While opponents accuse him of causing the economic crisis, Chavez blames the opposition for crippling the economy with strikes, protests and capital flight. The opposition says there is more poverty since the leftist leader took office. If that's the case and the poor are his base, no wonder he now has more supporters.
The political crisis in Venezuela is not over. The country is more divided than ever. The referendum just deepened the hatred of Chavez among his adversaries and glorified him among his supporters. Hugo Chavez will continue to be president until at least 2007, and if the opposition does not come together and present a viable option for all Venezuelans, Chavez -- who has been called an aspiring dictator -- could be around a lot longer than anyone could ever imagine. |
