| FIDEL CASTRO'SHEALTHPROBLEMS |
| Written by Maria Elena Salinas |
| Tuesday, November 29 2005 |
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| There are two things you are always guaranteed at the Versailles Restaurant in Miami's Little Havana: a good cup of Cuban coffee, and a conversation about the demise of Cuban leader Fidel Castro. The coffee is always strong, sweet and hot, and these days the conversation about Castro is hotter than ever.
The reason for the increased interest in Castro is because of reports that the CIA has determined that the 79-year-old Cuban leader is suffering from Parkinson's disease. The intelligence agency has reportedly warned U.S. policymakers to be prepared for the possibility of Castro's health worsening, leading to a crisis on the island.
For many Cuban-Americans who bitterly despise the Cuban dictator, news that Castro is confronting a debilitating disease is music to their ears. For many years, stories have swirled about Castro's possible health problems, but this time the CIA is reportedly putting its stamp of approval on them. For exiles waiting for the day when Castro is out of the picture, this is giving them hope that Cuba will be one step closer to trading its socialist-style government for Western-style democracy.
But that theory is not necessarily true. The fact is, Fidel Castro has a plan for succession of power in Cuba. The day he dies of Parkinson's, or whatever it is that ends up taking his life, Castro has planned for his younger brother Raul to take over. At 74, Raul, who heads Cuba's armed forces, is no spring chicken. But everything seems to indicate that he is ready and able to take over the reins of government on the communist island, at least in the short term.
In his new book "After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader," author Brian Latell lays out Cuba's plan of succession, and explains how it has been in the works since the early 1990s. That's when Raul, as head of the armed forces, began assuming many powers not traditionally associated with the military.
Many people don't know that in Cuba, the armed forces play a major role in running the economy of the island. The military, and thus Raul, run large portions of Cuba's tourism, agriculture, import-export services, construction and telecommunications. Even much of Cuba's famed cigar business is run by generals in olive-green uniforms. This simply means that Raul is a very influential guy in Cuba. And that's the way Fidel has planned it.
According to Latell, who for many years was a senior CIA analyst specializing in Cuba, Fidel has given Raul unprecedented power in running Cuba's economy in order to keep the military happy and to prepare for the day when he is not in the picture and Raul takes over. The hope for the Castro brothers is that when Fidel dies, Raul and his fellow generals -- who have newfound wealth, thanks to their roles in running the island's economy -- will simply step in and continue Cuba's communist course.
Granted, there are a few scenarios in which this plan would not work. First of all, if Raul dies first, then Fidel has to find someone else who has the loyalty of the generals, and there does not appear to be anyone on the horizon. Also, Raul sorely lacks the charisma and political savvy of his brother. Sure, he can jump in once Fidel is dead, but for how long can he hold together a faltering economy and an ongoing feud with the U.S.? Chances are, Raul would be a leader for the short term. Someone from the civilian or military ranks would have to fill the vacuum of power.
So, for those at Versailles Restaurant, or anywhere else, rejoicing that Fidel Castro might have Parkinson's, here is a reality check: The disease can be treated with drugs, and even if Castro is gone, he already has a prescription to continue his socialist revolution for at least a while longer.
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