| POLITICAL STORMS AHEAD IN 2006 |
| Written by Maria Elena Salinas |
| Monday, January 02 2006 |
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| In the news business, you never know what will be the next tragedy, political scandal, threat to mankind or headliner you'll have to cover. For example, no one could have foreseen that in just one year, there would be so much loss of life and human suffering, most of which was caused by Mother Nature. But as unpredictable as news can be, if 2005 was the year of natural disasters, there is a very good chance that 2006 could be the year when political storms sweep Latin America.
Those of us who cover this hemisphere will no doubt have our hands full. Here in the U.S., there will be midterm elections and a whole lot of heated debate on everything from immigration to the ongoing war in Iraq. But in Latin America, there will be not one or two, but 10 presidential elections.
The political year will start with the runoff in Chile in mid-January, when socialist Michelle Bachelet could become the first woman in South America to be elected to the top national office. Another woman president could be elected in Peru, where right-wing candidate Lourdes Flores is leading in the presidential polls. The Peruvian election will be in April, and you can bet former President Alberto Fujimori, now sitting in a Chilean jail, will do his best to influence the voting.
Unstable Haiti and usually uneventful Costa Rica are also expected to elect new governments in the early part of the year, and come May, Colombians could re-elect President Alvaro Uribe, whose hard-line rhetoric against illegal armed groups has helped maintain his popularity level.
Beginning in mid-June, most of the world's attention will be concentrated on the World Cup soccer tournament taking place in Germany. But the first week of July, Mexicans are going to have to make an effort to break away momentarily from their national sport to focus on the much-disputed presidential elections in their country.
There is a lot at stake in the Mexican elections. In 2000, the focus was on ousting the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) from power after it had ruled the country for more than seven decades. There were high hopes that Vicente Fox would be the president of change. But he has turned out to be a disappointment for many Mexicans, due to failed campaign promises and an apparent increase in crime, kidnappings, drug trafficking and political scandals.
This time around, the race in Mexico is wide-open, with voters trying to figure out which is the best of all evils. Should they give Felipe Calderon of the PAN governing party a chance, completely change direction by electing leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or go back to the PRI by voting for Roberto Madrazo? And for the first time ever, Mexicans living abroad will have a chance to vote.
Questions remain whether Brazilian President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva will run for a second term in October and how long a new government will last in Ecuador before being ousted again.
Toward the end of the year, Nicaragua's presidential election will certainly make headlines as the country continues to struggle with the political ghosts of the past. A jail term for former President Arnoldo Aleman and a tainted image for Daniel Ortega have not kept these rogue politicians from continuing to wield immense political control over the country.
And to close off 2006, unless the Venezuelan opposition gets its act together, President Hugo Chavez is sure to reaffirm his stronghold on his self-described Bolivarian Revolution. His anti-American rhetoric has not only made him the United States' biggest headache in the region, but turned him into the most influential leader in left-leaning Latin America.
We don't know what other news 2006 will bring, but one thing is for sure: We will have to keep a keen political eye open to some major political changes in Latin America this year |
