Miami -- Just as expected, the celebration began immediately. No sooner had the media reported that Fidel Castro had handed over power to his younger brother Raul than hundreds of Cuban exiles went out into the streets of Little Havana in Miami, chanting “Libertad, libertad, libertad.”

It didn’t matter that the comandante clearly stated in a letter to the Cuban people that the change of command was temporary in nature; the fact was that for the first time in 47 years, Fidel Castro, the ruthless dictator who pushed hundreds of thousands of people into exile, was not in control of the island. If he died now or later was beside the point; it certainly felt like freedom was just around the corner -- libertad indeed.

Ironically, just five days before the Cuban leader purportedly underwent a delicate operation for gastrointestinal bleeding -- that, according to his own account, left him too weak to govern -- he had vowed not to remain in power until he turned 100 years old. During the celebration of the 53rd anniversary of the assault on the Moncada barracks, Castro bragged about how the social advances of the Cuban Revolution have allowed more and more Cubans to reach 100 years of age. “But our little neighbors to the north should not fear,” he said, in a clear reference to the United States. “I am not planning on being in office at that age.”

Now the question is not whether he’ll live to be 100, but whether he’ll make it to his 80th birthday on Aug. 13. He promised the Cuban people, in the communiqué read on Cuban television by his personal assistant, that his birthday celebration would have to wait until Dec. 2, the 50th anniversary of the Revolutionary Armed Forces. He hopes to be well by then.

For years there has been speculation about when the end would come for Castro -- the world’s longest-ruling head of government -- and how that end would come. Would he willingly give up power? Would he succumb to U.S. pressures and adopt democratic changes on the island? Would he be overthrown? Or, would he just stay until his death? And if that were the case, when would he die? And finally, what would a post-Castro Cuba look like?

As per Cuba’s Constitution, the heir to the throne is his brother Raul, defense minister, second secretary of the Cuban Communist Party and first vice president of the Council of State. An enigmatic figure, a lot has been said about the younger Castro, but little is really known. Some versions describe him as more ruthless than Fidel, a true communist ideologue. Others say that as leader, he would more likely be open to democratic changes on the island. Observers of Cuba note that Raul’s visibility and his responsibilities have increased in the past few years, preparing him for the succession. But does he have that charismatic personality that has enamored millions inside and outside of Cuba?

Whether it’s Fidel or Raul, the U.S. government has made it very clear that it does not want to do business with any Castro. It’s not a succession that Washington would like to see, but a transition. So much so that just a few weeks ago, a presidential commission presented an $80 million plan designed to encourage opposition leaders and the Cuban people to demand a democratic government and a free-market economy after Fidel dies, offering to help them in the process. In the past, that kind of offer, instead of helping the many dissidents on the island who struggle to have a voice, has resulted in more oppression of them.

Several books have been written about the different scenarios that could play out in a post-Castro Cuba. But the truth is that no one, not even the comandante, knows for sure. We know what Castro wants: the continuation of his revolution. We know what the Cuban exiles and the U.S. government want: a democratic transition. But what do the Cuban people want?

Seven out of 10 Cubans living on the island were born after the revolution. They know no other form of government. They know no other leader but Fidel Castro. Many are probably wondering whether their comandante will recuperate in time to celebrate his birthday in December. But once he is gone, it will be the Cuban people who will play the most important role in determining what a post-Castro Cuba looks like.